(Image source from: Businesstoday.in)

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially acknowledged that El Nino conditions have begun in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. They caution that this weather change is expected to grow stronger during the current southwest monsoon season. In the bulletin from June 2026 regarding ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the IMD mentioned that the temperatures of the ocean’s surface in the central and eastern Pacific have exceeded the necessary levels for El Nino conditions. Most notably, the atmosphere has also reacted to the warming waters, confirming that the ocean and atmosphere are now solidly in an El Nino phase. The IMD stated, "At present, El Nino conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are predicted to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season. " Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that El Nino is expected to become stronger as the season continues.

As per the bulletin, the sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific surpassed the El Nino threshold in June 2026. The most recent three-month average Nio 3.4 index, which is a important measure used to track this condition, has gone above +0.5°C, indicating the official start of El Nino conditions. The IMD pointed out that significant positive temperature changes are also occurring below the ocean’s surface in many regions of the equatorial Pacific, suggesting that warmer waters will likely continue to rise and strengthen this event in the months ahead. Predictions show that above-average sea surface temperature changes will likely continue in the central Pacific between June and August, and are expected to grow in both the central and eastern Pacific starting in July. The latest model forecasts suggest moderate to strong El Nino conditions could occur throughout much of the southwest monsoon season.

El Nino is a natural climate event linked with higher-than-normal temperatures at the ocean's surface in the equatorial Pacific. In India, it has often been associated with decreased monsoon rainfall, increased temperatures, longer dry periods, and a higher chance of drought in certain years. However, the IMD pointed out that El Nino is not the only factor affecting the Indian monsoon. The department observed that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently present in the Indian Ocean and are expected to persist during the monsoon season. A neutral IOD suggests it is unlikely to significantly enhance or diminish the effects of El Nino this year.

On another note, Japan's Meteorological Agency (JMA) officially noted the beginning of El Nino on June 11. They pointed out a possible positive aspect for India, stating that a favorable Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may develop around July, which could lessen some negative impacts of what could potentially become a super El Nino on India's monsoon rainfall. The IMD stated they will keep a close watch on the changing conditions in the Pacific Ocean and provide monthly updates as the monsoon season goes on.