(Image source from: x.com/DKShivakumar)
The disagreements between Karnataka's Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy, DK Shivakumar, have been resolved through a new agreement that is being revealed slowly. The complete understanding will be available only after the Congress leaders in Delhi make a decision. This morning, the two leaders, who have had a troubled relationship concerning the chief minister role, had breakfast together to show they want to move on from the past. However, political experts believe that the public aspect of this meeting helped the Congress avoid creating a dramatic situation regarding their strained relationship and instead found a way to ease the tensions, with a high chance of Shivakumar taking over the leadership smoothly as soon as possible. Some predict this could happen as early as March or April 2026. The arrangement being discussed suggests that Shivakumar needs to remain patient and continue as the deputy chief minister until the leadership transition occurs, according to sources.
In exchange for his patience, more government positions will be given to those loyal to Shivakumar, and he will stay as the head of the Karnataka Congress. Eventually, it is anticipated that Siddaramaiah will support Shivakumar's leadership when the elections take place in 2028. Shivakumar cannot rush into action because he does not have enough support to remove Siddaramaiah independently. The Congress is also aware that removing a senior and experienced leader like Siddaramaiah would not be beneficial for the party.
Given these circumstances, sources believe Shivakumar might have reached the best arrangement possible. This 'compromise' from Siddaramaiah's side stems from his acknowledgment that he will not remain the chief minister indefinitely. He has already stated that this is his last term in office. He has established his legacy and appears eager to maintain it, intending to leave positively as one of Karnataka’s most significant leaders.
However, this 'compromise formula' relies on several factors that could either help or hinder the transition of power. The foremost question is whether Shivakumar can trust Siddaramaiah to honor his commitments, as surprises in power-sharing arrangements are not uncommon in Karnataka politics.
Secondly, can the Congress leadership in Delhi manage to ensure that the transition is seamless in time for the 2028 elections? Lastly, from the party's perspective, Siddaramaiah is a complex figure due to the importance of caste dynamics. He is regarded as the prominent figure of the 'AHINDA' political coalition, which includes significant caste and religious groups aimed at contesting the influence of the Lingayat community and the Other Backward Classes, particularly the Vokkaligas. In contrast, Shivakumar represents the OBC Vokkaliga community, and the Congress must avoid alienating this voter base.
